How African Union’s next chair will emerge, By Bunmi Makinwa

Whoever wins the election should take care of inner and exterior challenges of the continental organisation. They embody streamlining tasks amongst elected key officers of the AUC, invigorating the poorly motivated employees, and strengthening the weak funding base of the organisation. The chair additionally has to re-focus AUC away from its pursuit of donor-driven agenda, and deftly navigate the delicate stability of authority between AUC chair and the heads of state and authorities of member states.

The crowded scene of candidates for the essential put up of Chairperson of the African Union Fee (AUC) a number of months in the past, has shrunk by greater than 50 per cent. A complete of rumoured and declared eight candidates that included two former presidents, a vice-president, prime ministers and ministers, has decreased to solely three candidates.

They’re: Mahamoud Ali Youssouf – overseas minister of Djibouti since 2005; Raila Odinga – long-time opposition chief and former prime minister of Kenya; and Richard Randriamandrato – former overseas minister of Madagascar.

In February in Addis Ababa, the African Union (AU) Summit of Heads of State and Authorities will elect the chair to handle and lead the AUC, which is the secretariat and bureaucratic arm of the AU. The chair is accountable for the harmonisation of political agenda and government facets of the decision-making course of for the heads of state and authorities of the 55 member states.

Along with selling AU’s goals, implementing its choices, and coordinating with regional financial communities and companions, the AUC chair serves as the purpose of interplay with exterior companions and international entities on African frequent objectives.

The profitable candidate should receive two-thirds of the votes forged by the nations, and can serve for 4 years, which is renewable for a second time period.

All three candidates meet the necessities for the put up, having the expertise, worldwide publicity, political weight and backing of their respective nations. They’ve additionally demonstrated eager curiosity to function the pinnacle of the political physique, as seen throughout a televised reside debate in December 2024 to familiarise most of the people with the candidates.

No formal rating was carried out following the talk, and the heads of state and authorities who will vote for the chair won’t base their choices on the talk. Numerous elements will affect their decisions, and a few key ones may be drawn from previous elections for the chairperson place.

There have been 5 chairpersons since 2002 when the African Union was established.

Former Ivoirian diplomat and Secretary-Basic of Organisation of African Unity (OAU), Amara Essy, was interim chairperson of AUC from 2002 to 2003. He was adopted by former president of Mali, Alpha Konare (2003-2008), who was succeeded by former Overseas Minister of Gabon, Jean Ping (2008-2012). Ping handed over to former Overseas Minister of South Africa, Nkozasana Dlamini-Zuma (2012-2017), who was changed by former Prime Minister of Chad, Mahamat Faki, the present chair.

Essy managed the transition of OAU to the AU. Nonetheless, he didn’t have ample political leverage to safe the place of chair for himself. The nascent AU was perceived by the heads of state as requiring to be managed by a political peer. Cote d’Ivoire withdrew Essy as its candidate simply earlier than the election, and Konare, a former president, obtained 35 of the 45 votes forged to imagine the place in 2003.

Nonetheless, Konare lasted just one time period. His administration and management fashion created an issue for a lot of heads of state. The political weight and seniority of a former head of state, which helped Konare to get the place, grew to become the legal responsibility that ended his mandate in 2008.

Coming with an intensive community of political alliances constructed from occupying ministerial posts in his nation, and likewise throughout his time period as president of the United Nations Basic Meeting, Ping in 2008 received the election with 31 votes.

When South Africa determined to problem Ping in 2012 after his preliminary time period, it dedicated substantial assets to again its candidate, Dlamini-Zuma. South Africa rallied the complete southern African area in assist of the nominee.

Many nations felt uneasy that South Africa determined to ignore the unwritten conference that the 5 largest contributors to the AU funds – Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Nigeria, and South Africa – shouldn’t contest the fee’s highest workplace. The intention was to present room for “smaller” member states and keep away from a perceived domination of the continent by the bigger economies.

The voting course of in January 2012 was deadlocked. Ping was within the lead towards Dlamini-Zuma after many rounds of voting, though neither candidate secured the requisite two-thirds majority votes for victory. Consequently, the election was postponed until July.

In a tense environment in July, Dlamini-Zuma emerged victorious with 37 votes, after 4 rounds of voting, to imagine the place of AUC chair.

Ping’s defeat was seen as partly as a result of absence of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi, who was receiving therapy overseas, and Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan, who was coping with heightened home insurgency. Each of them had been robust supporters of Ping.

Dlamini-Zuma selected to serve for just one time period. In July 2016, the election for a brand new chair went on for 16 rounds, but not one of the a number of candidates bought the required two-thirds votes.

A brand new spherical of election occurred in January 2017, and Moussa Faki Mahamat, previously prime minister and overseas minister of Chad, who didn’t contest in July, entered the race. His candidature finally received by 38 votes within the seventh spherical towards Amina Mohamed, then overseas minister of Kenya. Fifteen nations from the southern African area abstained from voting to indicate their disagreement, in response to varied studies.

Some analysts concluded that Mr Faki received lastly in 2017 as a result of his nation had its president, Idriss Deby, because the outgoing Chairperson of the African Union. Faki, himself, as overseas minister, presided over the Govt Council of the AU.

The re-election of Faki in 2021 was simple, as he was unopposed for the put up. Faki bought 51 votes out of 55, with three abstentions and one different member being ineligible to vote. He’s the primary to serve two phrases within the place.

A number of points account for the voting of nations at AUC chair election. Among the many most outstanding are: persistent, unyielding political and materials assist of the candidate’s nation; assist of enormous economies of the continent, which additionally might bolster regional bloc; and efficient diplomatic negotiations, particularly throughout the rounds of voting.

The stances of nations on African and international politics, resembling pro-Western Sahara versus pro-Morocco; the Israel-Gaza battle; and the contrasting assist for Russia versus USA on Ukraine, can affect voting.

Among the many three candidates at the moment, Odinga (79) has been within the political limelight for a very long time. He has contested and misplaced 5 elections for president. He served in varied governments in his nation, and has performed essential roles in African politics and within the AU.

His apparent strengths might hinder his possibilities. His historical past of failures in all nationwide presidential elections, and his turbulent resistance to ruling governments generally is a reason behind concern for sure nations. It’s on file that Kenya misplaced an in depth election in 2017 for a similar place, primarily on account of lack of assist by some nations in its personal Jap area, and lukewarm curiosity by many southern African nations.

Djibouti’s Youssouf’s (59) steady years of serving as overseas minister from 2005 until date has created for him a community of political allies and assist. He additionally stands as the choice for the nations that will really feel dominated by Kenya within the area.

Djibouti’s internet hosting of army bases for some overseas powers is a supply of disagreement with a number of nations. As well as, a earlier dispute between Djibouti and Eritrea, which led to a battle, might depart lingering sentiments with some nations, and it might affect their assist.

Randriamandrato (55) of Madagascar, the third candidate, served as his nation’s minister of economic system and finance from 2018 to 2021, after which briefly as minister of overseas affairs from March to October 2022. He has the potential to emerge as a “darkish horse’ that may draw votes away from Kenya and Djibouti, and may turn out to be the compromise candidate, or use the chance for different political aspirations.

The African Union is split into 5 areas – Southern, Central, Jap, Western and Northern Africa. Solely Northern and Jap areas haven’t produced chairs for the Fee since its institution in 2002. All of the three candidates are from the Jap area, which is anticipated to provide the subsequent chair.

4 of the 5 individuals to carry this workplace previously got here from French-speaking African nations and just one got here from the English-speaking group. The Lusophone or Portuguese-speaking nations haven’t occupied the place. Djibouti and Madagascar are Francophone and Kenya is Anglophone.

Gender just isn’t anticipated to be an element. All candidates are male; though the opportunity of an surprising candidature by a girl, if there’s a impasse throughout voting, can’t be dominated out.

The significance accorded to the AU will partially emanate from the character of the AUC chair who’s the face of Africa at many international fora.

Whoever wins the election should take care of inner and exterior challenges of the continental organisation. They embody streamlining tasks amongst elected key officers of the AUC, invigorating the poorly motivated employees, and strengthening the weak funding base of the organisation. The chair additionally has to re-focus AUC away from its pursuit of donor-driven agenda, and deftly navigate the delicate stability of authority between AUC chair and the heads of state and authorities of member states.

Extra basically, robust and succesful African nations are the premise for constructing a well-performing continental physique such because the AU.

 Bunmi Makinwa is the CEO of AUNIQUEI Communication for Management