What does Trump’s victory in America imply for relations between the US and Africa on the whole, and between America and Uganda specifically? Good query, and it is one which has actually been mentioned at size over the course of the previous few weeks. Whereas hindsight will at all times be the last word choose, there’s nothing extra insightful than making an attempt to make a prediction.
Let’s take a more in-depth have a look at easy methods to do it and what it might imply to our area if our concepts got here true.
Formulating overseas coverage predictions
We’re not getting down to be controversial, nor will we want to present a commentary on what is occurring within the US proper now. Our purpose is solely to have a look at the information and up to date historic context to formulate our personal overseas coverage predictions. Due to the divisive nature of US politics in the meanwhile, we really feel it essential to emphasize this level. In consequence, the predictions that may comply with have arisen by taking a look at:
The present financial local weather within the US and Africa and the prevailing sentiment of the IMF and World Financial institution
Present relationships between African leaders and the Biden Whitehouse, in addition to a overview of relations with the earlier Trump Whitehouse
The extent and scale of Chinese language funding in our continent and the way this may occasionally affect US-China relations going ahead
Now that we now have defined how our thought processes have unfolded, we might start trying on the particulars.
Competitors for smarter extraction expertise
The Chinese language BRI has — in line with many — allowed Beijing to steal a march on Washington in the case of entry to African uncooked supplies. The period during which African manpower and labour could possibly be exploited for minimal outlay very a lot appears like it’s coming to finish. Why? As a result of cell units and electrical automobiles are being made at quicker charges than ever earlier than, and it is Africa that possesses a lot of the uncooked supplies for batteries.
The US has change into more and more conscious of the necessity to extract uncooked supplies at a scale in a approach that’s quicker and requires fewer individuals on the bottom. In locations like Uganda which have just about unexplored areas thought to comprise treasured metals and uncommon earth components, that is an thrilling alternative for development. President Trump has made no secret of his willingness to make use of financial tariffs in an try to sluggish Chinese language enlargement. He’s additionally a outstanding advocate of fracking for pure gasoline deposits. His monitor document seems to point {that a} large-scale funding in extraction and drilling could possibly be on the desk.
Journey infrastructure investments and eCommerce
Whereas some see Trump as a protectionist, he’s actually a businessman in excessive workplace. He has made no secret of his imaginative and prescient of bringing manufacturing again into the US, and that is one thing that might have an actual profit to Africa. To grasp how this might play out, we have to look extra carefully on the scenario on the bottom.
US companies need to have the ability to promote to as massive a market as doable, and presently a lot of Africa is ignored in favour of the Center East, Far East, and Europe. Utilizing US development corporations to construct roads, housing, and sanitation companies in key African business hubs may show extremely profitable for the Trump administration. It might even have the twin advantage of counteracting the Chinese language BRI that has positioned Beijing within the driving seat within the eyes of many Republicans in Congress.
A possible conflict over on-line speech and content material
X has confronted a political backlash in Brazil and the fluid political nature of some African international locations might come into play right here in a giant approach. Trump could be very outspoken and decided to cut back the extent of perceived censorship in US businesses. Watching how this might play out in Africa will definitely be very attention-grabbing.
Whereas we by no means want to predict such unlucky occasions, it’s a grim actuality that political corruption and mission creep will proceed in sure corners of our nice continent. If X is unwilling to assist leaders censor the general public, it may really change into the worldwide city sq. Musk has talked about since shopping for it.
With the Whitehouse pushing again towards the thought of hate speech and censoring so-called disinformation, it may open the eyes of western leaders and officers to practices in Africa. With that might come international financial strain and presumably even sanctions towards rulers who’re seen to have change into illegitimate on account of their very own actions.
Cultural influences and strikes into leisure
Nollywood takes its title from Hollywood for a very good cause — the US continues to set the tone for international leisure. What will probably be actually attention-grabbing is seeing if US leisure and sports activities franchises come to Africa and transfer past merely constructing fan bases in South Africa.
Dana White on the UFC has been very open about desirous to placed on a UFC Africa battle card in 2025 and it simply so occurs he is without doubt one of the finest buddies of President-elect Trump. If the Whitehouse had been to get behind one of many world’s largest sports activities leagues coming to Africa regularly, who is aware of what sort of doorways could possibly be opened and connections could possibly be made.
It is going to even be attention-grabbing to see how totally different companies all over the world — not simply in Africa — adapt to what could possibly be a brand new financial actuality. eCommerce shops, streaming websites, and locations to play video games on-line like Bonus Focus might all profit from U.S. funding in African infrastructure designed to counteract the affect of China.
Ultimate ideas
Hindsight is at all times good and but nobody who makes a prediction does so with its profit. Because of this, we now have tried to make our judgements as apolitical as doable and stick solely to the information out there on the time of writing.
