Washington, DC — Panelists talk about how a second Trump administration might reshape U.S.-Africa relations, whether or not safety, financial, and diplomatic engagement will deepen or decline, and easy methods to outline the U.S. strategic function within the continent whereas countering China’s rising affect.
This assembly on January 29, 2025 is a part of CFR’s Transition 2025 collection, which examines the foremost overseas coverage points confronting the Trump administration.
Audio system: Johnnie Carson – Former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs; Former U.S. Ambassador to Kenya, Zimbabwe and Uganda; CFR Member. Cameron C. Hudson – Senior Affiliate, Africa Program, Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research. Ebenezer Obadare – Douglas Dillon Senior Fellow for Africa Research, Council on International Relations.Presider: Shannon L. Smith – Center East and Africa Part Supervisor, Congressional Analysis Service; CFR Member
SMITH: Thanks and welcome, all people, to at the moment’s Council on International Relations assembly, titled “U.S.-Africa Coverage in a Second Trump Time period.” This assembly is a part of CFR’s Transition 2025 Sequence, which examines the foremost overseas coverage points confronting the Trump administration.
I am Shannon Smith. I am the Center East and Africa Part analysis supervisor for the Congressional Analysis Service, and I will be presiding over at the moment’s dialogue.
We’re joined at the moment by the Honorable Johnnie CARSON. He is former assistant secretary of state for African affairs, former U.S. ambassador to Kenya, Zimbabwe, and Uganda, and former nationwide intelligence officer for Africa, in addition to a CFR member.
Cameron HUDSON. He is the senior affiliate for the Africa Program on the Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research. Cameron was beforehand with the Atlantic Council’s Africa Middle. He served as chief of workers to presidential particular envoys for Sudan, and through the Bush administration because the director for African affairs on the NSC.
Ebenezer Obadare is the Douglas Dillon senior fellow for Africa research on the Council on International Relations. Earlier than becoming a member of CFR, he was professor of sociology on the College of Kansas in Lawrence. His most up-to-date guide is titled Pastoral Energy, Clerical State: Pentecostalism: Gender and Sexuality in Nigeria.
We’re right here at the moment to debate U.S. Africa coverage. Africa was not raised as a very important problem through the presidential marketing campaign, however as we’re already seeing, with the occasions within the Democratic Republic of Congo this week and the takeover of Goma, Africa goes to be on the worldwide agenda. So I might like to begin at the moment with Sudan, dwelling to the biggest humanitarian and displacement disaster on the planet. Cameron, you latterly wrote in a International Coverage piece, quote, “Washington has strategic pursuits and untapped leverage in Sudan that go properly past the battle’s toll that makes Trump uniquely positioned to advance options to finish the battle,” shut quote. What do you see because the alternatives for america to assist deliver an finish to the civil battle in Sudan?
HUDSON: Properly, thanks, Shannon. And it is nice to be with all people at the moment.
Pay attention, I believe that the president has been fairly, fairly clear when it comes to what his overseas coverage priorities are. And proper on the high of that checklist is that this notion of increasing Center East peace. He had this type of signature overseas coverage achievement in his first time period, the Abraham Accords, which, for individuals who recall, Sudan is one in all 4 Arab states that signed onto that settlement. It did not do it on the time absolutely voluntarily, as a result of it was basically a transaction that the Trump administration put to the Sudanese in alternate for eradicating them from the state sponsor of terrorism checklist, which was on the high of the checklist of issues that Sudan was asking america to do.
However, as I argue, that settlement type of tied the Trump administration’s destiny to Sudan. And now, because it comes into workplace declaring that it may not solely strengthen that settlement however increase it to incorporate different Arab states, notably Saudi Arabia, I make the argument that it is exhausting to think about strengthening an settlement when one of many signatories to that settlement is on the verge of state collapse. Which Sudan is true now. 13 million individuals displaced within the battle. You understand, greater than half of the nation of fifty million individuals in want of dire humanitarian help. On the verge of famine in lots of components of the nation. So actually, a particularly dire situation.
And I believe one factor that goes, I believe, un-talked about lots in Washington is the truth that lots of the similar Arab states that President Trump believes might be signatories to an expanded Abraham Accords are on one aspect of this battle or one other. The United Arab Emirates, it has been established now, has been the principal backer of the Fast Assist Forces militia, which the Biden administration declared was committing genocide within the last days of the administration, just some weeks in the past. And on the opposite aspect you may have Egypt, you may have Saudi Arabia, you may have different Arab Gulf states supporting the Sudan Armed Forces. And so the concept he will make an expanded peace whereas these nations are basically battling in a proxy battle in Sudan, type of, you realize, I battle to see that.
And so, given President Trump’s, I believe, properly established, you realize, relationships with Arab leaders—whether or not it is President Sisi, MBS, MBZ, President Erdoğan of Turkey, the royal household of Qatar, I imply, you title it—he has nurtured relationships on the highest ranges with states who’re taking part in a task and who’ve an lively curiosity within the final result in Sudan. And so I believe that, as I wrote, positions him fairly uniquely to play a dealmaking function, to deliver these powers collectively, and to implement a ceasefire settlement that may no less than, I believe within the brief time period, you realize, alleviate a number of the humanitarian situations that we now have struggled, you realize, with for the previous, you realize, greater than a yr, to attempt to get a deal with on and attempt to get entry to.
After which, hopefully arrange situations for—you realize, for what comes subsequent politically in Sudan. I do not assume anyone has a roadmap for what a transitional authorities or a brand new type of governance within the nation may appear like as a result of the battle has gotten in the best way of any conversations about that. So I believe it is a crucial however not ample situation that we obtain some type of ceasefire. And I believe that the Trump administration, given what it has mentioned are its objectives within the wider area, is uniquely positioned to assist deliver that about.
SMITH: Ambassador CARSON, perhaps I can flip to you then on this query that this type of ceasefire being crucial however not ample. Might you speak to us slightly bit extra concerning the challenges of the Sudan Battle and its significance for the area and for america?
CARSON: Properly, thanks, Shannon. It is good to be with everybody to speak about Africa, an necessary matter. With respect to Sudan, I believe that Cameron is true concerning the magnitude of the issue. We see at the moment Sudan as being the worst humanitarian disaster on the planet, a humanitarian disaster that dwarfs the horrible state of affairs that has occurred in Gaza, and dwarfs even that which we’re seeing in Ukraine at the moment. We see roughly ten to fifteen million individuals in Sudan itself, displaced by the preventing that has gone on between the Fast Assist Forces and the Sudan navy. We see 800,000 individuals, practically 1,000,000, who’re in dire want of meals help. And we see practically three million Sudanese refugees displaced in locations like Chad, South Sudan, Egypt, and the Central African Republic. The disaster is big, however the response has not been practically ample to take care of it.
Sure, there’s a chance that the Trump administration may even see, as Cameron has mentioned, a possibility to bolster the Abraham Accords by intervening in a constructive negotiating style. What I hope will occur is that the administration will take the disaster in Sudan and the Horn critically, that it’s going to appoint a brand new particular envoy to take a look at the problems within the area. Thirdly, that it’s going to provoke higher worldwide assist from our companions to work to assist clear up this drawback, lead an initiative that brings the African states and a number of the key Arab states into a significant convention on easy methods to resolve this problem by placing stress on the 2 sides and lowering the malign influences of out of doors companions.
It additionally means placing higher stress on nations on the jap aspect of the Gulf. The United Arab Emirates has been accused on the Safety Council and in plenty of paperwork as being one of many principal supporters of this battle. It’s getting the African Union, IGAD and the East African neighborhood to come back collectively to work extra in unity and never in distinction on working this drawback out. However a ceasefire is totally vital. It is a complicated problem nevertheless it does require management—important international management. And that is not been there. The United Nations secretary-general has not performed a big, sustained, and critical function on this battle.
It is usually necessary to level out to the nations on the east aspect of the gulf that their pursuits—their long-term financial, political, and safety pursuits are to be seen in a secure and largely democratic success in each Sudan and in Ethiopia. And that their wishes to increase their financial affect within the area is finest completed by way of and beneath stability and peace. We all know that the Gulf Arab states need to and are increasing their financial pursuits, however they are going to be capped by the continuation of the battle and the destruction and dislocation that’s at present happening.
However extra necessary than it as a possibility to work by way of the Abraham Accords, that may be—that may be a path, what I am searching for and hope that there can be a notion that it’s within the pursuits of the administration to work for peace. And which means being engaged as a frontrunner in bringing collectively each the African, the European key companions, and the Arabs right into a dialogue on easy methods to make this occur.
SMITH: Thanks each. Possibly we’ll shift west for the second and take into consideration West Africa now. So over the past 5 or so years we have had a complete collection of developments, coups. We have had the ouster of the French from a number of nations and the departure of U.S. forces from Niger. We have had the diminishment of ECOWAS, unfold of violent extremism, rising Russian affect. Elements which have all type of reshaped the political panorama of the area. Ebenezer, turning to you first, how do you assume these points are prone to come out—to play out within the coming years, because the Trump administration faces West Africa?
OBADARE: Thanks, Shannon. I believe to be able to apprehend the query, I believe it is necessary to begin with what’s our principle of what is going on on. So much is happening in that area as we communicate. And it is attention-grabbing that we’re having this dialog on the day when the exit of the so-called AES states from ECOWAS has been finalized. ECOWAS is the Financial system Group of West African States. It is the—I’d say, perhaps subsequent to the EU, essentially the most important and an important regional physique in the entire world. It is being a profitable—some of the profitable examples of regional motion. And the cut up—the obvious cut up, or the previous cut up now, I believe is prone to be—is to be regretted.
However that is not the one factor that is happening. It is also the truth that lots of the nations within the subregion are going through long-term political destabilization attributable to a decades-long Islamic insurgency from Boko Haram, within the case of northern Nigeria, but in addition from a few of some Boko Haram associates—ISWAP and the remainder—throughout the subregion. Particularly the three renegade states which have simply apparently left ECOWAS. However the third factor, perhaps on the rather more constructive be aware, is that within the subregion we have had a democratic household that appears to be displaying no signal of flagging. Senegal has efficiently transitioned from President Macky Sall to President Diomaye Faye. And this was attributable to a number of the constructive actions of civil society components, commerce union, college students.
So you may have a society within the arms of a dilemma when it comes to the course during which it ought to go. You may go within the AES course, insofar as these three junta-led states are taking their inspiration from Russia and China when it comes to the mannequin of governance that may prevail within the subregion. Or it’s also possible to go within the course of Senegal, Ghana, which additionally lately held a profitable election, and Nigeria, the place democracy has been the order of the day since 1999.
The problem for america going ahead then is easy methods to pitch its tent. Methods to, on the one hand, acknowledge that there is a number of anti-French, anti-Western resentment within the area, however on the similar time to see the alternatives for intervention in strengthening democratic establishments within the twelve ECOWAS nations that also stay largely democratic, whereas constructing alliances to make it possible for Chinese language makes an attempt and Russian makes an attempt to divide the area by way of its collaboration with Mali, Niger, and the junta, to make it possible for that doesn’t succeed.
In an effort to try this, and I’ll say this on the ultimate be aware, I believe it may be necessary to comprehend that america will not be going to have the ability to try this by insisting on America first. At very least, it has to have a really elastic definition of America first, which means that America first shouldn’t essentially imply that Africa final. That there must be a number of realism about how to consider American curiosity and that it is necessary to consider these areas during which American curiosity and African curiosity can converge. And West Africa might be the house during which this convergence occurs.
SMITH: Following up on that, that query of convergence, you’ve got written fairly a bit about faith, and particularly written concerning the ties between President Trump and the Evangelical neighborhood. How do you see these points doubtlessly affecting U.S. coverage?
OBADARE: I believe going ahead—thanks for the query—faith goes to be extraordinarily necessary. It is at all times been one a part of overseas coverage that folks have sometimes not paid consideration to. And if there’s a possibility to do this, it could not get any higher than this. And that is the truth that President Trump seems to have—to have a pure—what you may name a pure political base in Africa. And it’s amongst Evangelicals and Pentecostals. Now the reason being, why do these individuals like Trump a lot? And why are they, in their very own personal areas, celebrating what they name his second coming?
And it is quite simple. One, they like the truth that he takes their aspect as a Christian, and that they see him because the lightning rod within the tradition wars not simply in america, however the notion that in lots of components of Africa the Christian faith is beneath the cosh and that President Trump is no less than one president who has come out brazenly of their protection. However the different aspect of that is the truth that they understand President Trump to be the one who will assist in the within the battle in opposition to the Islamic insurgency. So if you happen to discuss to Center-Belters in Nigeria, for example, what they need is a aid from the assaults by numerous Islamic rebel teams.
But it surely’s the identical factor whenever you go to Burkina Faso, whenever you go to Ghana, whenever you go to Mali. In any of these areas the place Islamic insurgency seems to have had the higher hand, individuals there are likely to see President Trump as a type of liberator who’s going to assist them. A technique during which america can benefit from that is to acknowledge that that base is there, however to additionally see that there’s loads of curiosity—that there’s sharpened urge for food for American ethical assist and navy assist within the battle in opposition to Islamic insurgency. And that is one thing that I believe, going ahead, america can capitalize on and benefit from.
SMITH: Possibly we might—
CARSON: Shannon, can I say one thing about—
SMITH: Please do.
CARSON: West Africa, if I can? And I agree with all the things that Ebenezer has mentioned. However I believe there are additionally another key factors that must be made right here. One is that the U.S. ought to absolutely implement the World Fragility Act, particularly because it pertains to the nations in West Africa. Second, it ought to workers up its embassies and supply higher each bilateral and regional help to the coastal area and people states. It must also work very exhausting to proceed to advertise each democracy, improvement, and financial progress. The states within the area and the individuals within the area, particularly alongside the coastal states, from Côte d’Ivoire all the way down to Nigeria, assist democracy. They need democracies that work. They need financial improvement and financial progress that creates productiveness and jobs and gives them with higher authorities providers.
It’s the absence of democracy, it’s the absence of financial progress, it’s the absence of improvement, it’s the failure to deal successfully with the safety issues within the Sahel, it’s the failure to take care of the local weather change points within the Sahel which have generated the return of navy regimes. The counter to that’s placing extra assets and extra assist behind improvement, financial progress, and democracy, and deliverance of service. We can not neglect, and we should always not neglect, that Nigeria is predominantly an important nation in West Africa, and arguably some of the necessary threesome in Africa itself—it is Africa’s largest democracy, its largest financial system, and it has some of the vibrant and dominant financial cities in Lagos.
It’s important that democracy not be allowed to slide away in coastal West Africa. And assist for Senegal’s democracy, Ghana’s profitable current election, Nigeria’s profitable elections two years in the past are issues to construct on. And we now have to be careful for what could also be democratic backsliding in locations like Togo and Benin. Their incapability to ship on democracy, improvement, and financial progress leaves them open to having the issues of the Sahel and the regional points there go down and attain the coast.
SMITH: Ambassador, following up slightly bit on that and excited about the problems of supporting democracy in addition to type of perceptions of China, and plenty of political opinion surveys in Africa usually appear to—america and China, the query is posed, you realize, what’s your most popular mannequin of improvement? It varies fairly a bit by nation to nation. China is usually ranked extra extremely. In his opening assertion on the affirmation listening to, Secretary Rubio mentioned, quote, “The Communist Get together of China that leads the PRC is essentially the most potent and harmful near-peer adversary this nation has ever confronted.” How do you see these perceptions of the Individuals’s Republic of China influencing the Trump administration’s insurance policies towards Africa? And the way do you assume African governments will reply? And I am going to ask the others on the panel to take this up as properly.
CARSON: Yeah. Thanks, Shannon, for the query. There is no doubt that america continues to be held in very, very excessive regard throughout Africa. The polling information, whether or not it comes from Afrobarometer or The Economist Intelligence Unit continues to point out that america has a really excessive favorability score throughout the continent. However additionally it is true that over the past twenty years, largely on account of the Belt and Street Initiative, China’s main investments in infrastructure and improvement, in addition to its smooth energy, using its Confucius Institutes, have made important inroads into its favorability, lifting it larger. There is no query. So the U.S. nonetheless is favorably seen, however China has risen on account of its actions there.
However let me communicate to the broader problem, if I if I might, and the query that you simply requested. Countering China’s actions, competing with China’s actions in Africa, ought to, in truth, be one in all America’s priorities. But it surely shouldn’t, in truth, be the primary or second precedence. The U.S. has sturdy social, financial, political, and safety pursuits in seeing a robust, developed, and secure African continent. And our goals must be to give attention to strengthening U.S.-African relations. Not seeing Africa by way of the prism of Chinese language overseas coverage, Chinese language actions in Africa, Russian actions in Africa, however by way of American curiosity in Africa.
America stays dwelling to the biggest African-origin diaspora within the developed world. Some 15 % of Individuals are Black. And we should always acknowledge that that gives us with a historic linkage in addition to an necessary cultural and more and more necessary financial linkage. We should always acknowledge that Africa is, in truth, the fastest-growing continent on the planet. In lower than twenty-five years from now, a rustic like Nigeria will overtake america because the third-largest nation on the planet, behind India and China. We should acknowledge additionally that in 2050—or, earlier than 2050 we’ll see one quarter of the worldwide inhabitants popping out of Africa. And by the flip of the century, we’ll see 40 % of the world’s inhabitants being Africa.
That may be a market. That is an necessary drive for financial competitors. However on the political aspect, we should not neglect that if we glance up in the direction of New York, the biggest geographical regional physique within the United Nations is Africa. Fifty-four states. We want them to be companions with us in coping with transnational international points, whether or not it’s countering extremism and countering terrorism, whether or not it is countering cash laundering—cash laundering, whether or not it is preventing local weather change and combating local weather change, and whether or not we’re looking for their assist in stopping China’s expansionism within the South China Sea, in Taiwan, and in addition combating North Korea’s mal-influences in Ukraine, together with that of Russia.
They’re companions. And we should always take a look at them as companions. Africa has company. It has decisions. Our main goal is to strengthen and take a look at Africa and take a look at the person states in Africa as potential allies and companions in developments and progress that we share collectively. Sure, combating China and countering China’s destructive influences in Africa is necessary. However we have to have one thing on the desk, not simply rhetoric in opposition to them. We should be having one thing on the desk that brings Africa with us as we additionally level out what China is doing negatively, not solely to them however of their regional engagements as properly.
