The Nigerian authorities has as soon as once more rolled out its acquainted narrative of financial success. This time, it celebrates a 3.46% GDP progress within the third quarter of 2024, lauding it as a triumph of its financial insurance policies. Ministers and officers take turns praising the achievement, whereas the president tweets a few brilliant future forward. However beneath this fastidiously crafted celebration lies a deeper problem: the rising disconnect between the financial indicators the federal government touts and the lived actuality of peculiar Nigerians. The so-called progress shouldn’t be a sign of prosperity, however slightly an phantasm of progress—one which hides a troubling financial disaster.
Whereas the federal government’s narrative of GDP progress could sound encouraging, the basic points affecting Nigerians stay unresolved. Inflation continues to rise, rates of interest are hovering, unemployment is at staggering ranges, and essentially the most weak populations are falling additional behind. What’s being celebrated shouldn’t be precise prosperity however an financial mirage—numbers that look good on paper however fail to make any significant distinction within the lives of most Nigerians.
Prosperity Is Not A GDP Quantity
The federal government’s obsession with GDP progress as the last word indicator of financial success overlooks a important reality: GDP doesn’t measure wealth distribution. It solely captures the entire worth of products and providers produced in an economic system. Whereas an increase in GDP may look like a optimistic improvement, it fails to replicate how that progress impacts the lives of the typical Nigerian. The latest 3.46% progress, as an example, is essentially pushed by inflation, not by actual will increase in items and providers. When costs rise with no corresponding rise in earnings, that is inflation-driven stagnation, not actual progress.
For a lot of Nigerians, rising GDP means little when wages fail to maintain tempo with the rising price of dwelling. Primary items and providers—meals, transportation, schooling—have gotten more and more unaffordable. As a substitute of celebrating financial progress on paper, the federal government ought to give attention to making certain that this progress is felt within the pockets of peculiar Nigerians. Prosperity is not only concerning the numbers; it’s about actual, tangible enhancements in individuals’s day by day lives.
Inflation, which reached 33.88% in October 2024, represents a silent tax on the poor. Each improve in inflation erodes buying energy, making it tougher for Nigerians to afford requirements. For a lot of, the federal government’s declare of financial progress is an phantasm that vanishes once they attempt to purchase meals, pay transport fares, or cowl college charges. If the federal government actually cared about prosperity, it will prioritize controlling inflation and making certain that financial progress interprets into actual enhancements in individuals’s lives.
The GDP Delusion: A Indifferent Actuality
One other troubling facet of Nigeria’s GDP progress is the truth that it’s largely pushed by the providers sector. Whereas this may look like progress, it raises necessary questions concerning the inclusiveness of this progress. The service sectors driving GDP progress—monetary providers, telecommunications, actual property—aren’t the sorts of industries that create mass employment or elevate the usual of dwelling for peculiar Nigerians.
The service sector, whereas essential, can’t be the only real driver of financial prosperity. Nigeria’s agricultural sector, which helps over 60% of the inhabitants, is stagnating. The truth that agriculture shouldn’t be rising at a tempo commensurate with inhabitants progress alerts an unbalanced economic system. Many Nigerians stay trapped in poverty, regardless of working in agriculture. The shortage of progress on this important sector is indicative of the economic system’s broader imbalances.
An economic system that depends too closely on one sector—particularly a sector that doesn’t create widespread job alternatives—can’t be thought-about affluent. True prosperity requires a diversified economic system, the place agriculture, manufacturing, expertise, and providers all play key roles. With out diversification, the nation will proceed to face widespread poverty and inequality, even when GDP continues to rise.
Curiosity Charges: Stifling Progress
The federal government’s financial insurance policies have created an setting that’s hostile to actual progress. The latest improve within the Central Financial institution’s rates of interest to 27.5% is a first-rate instance of how authorities actions are stifling funding and entrepreneurship. Whereas the central financial institution argues that the speed hikes are crucial to manage inflation, in actuality, they’re making borrowing prohibitively costly for companies and shoppers alike.
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), that are important for job creation and financial improvement, are significantly affected. With rates of interest this excessive, these companies can not afford to borrow to develop and even to keep up their operations. Bigger companies are additionally hesitant to put money into such an setting, resulting in stagnation within the non-public sector.
The implications of those excessive rates of interest are disastrous for unemployment and entrepreneurship. By making credit score costly, the federal government is choking the very sectors that would present jobs and alleviate poverty. In a rustic with rising unemployment, significantly among the many youth, an setting that makes it tougher to start out or develop companies is a important misstep.
The Unseen Disaster: Poverty, Inequality, and Unemployment
Whereas the federal government celebrates GDP progress, it fails to acknowledge the mounting crises of poverty, inequality, and unemployment. The unemployment price in Nigeria stays stubbornly excessive, with youth unemployment hovering round 40%. Which means that whereas a choose few profit from the so-called “progress,” the vast majority of Nigerians proceed to battle with poverty and joblessness.
The federal government’s failure to deal with these important points underscores its misguided priorities. No nation can actually declare prosperity when its residents can not meet their primary wants. The rising wealth hole and the stagnation of the center class are clear indicators that Nigeria’s progress is neither inclusive nor sustainable. Reasonably than celebrating summary financial metrics, the federal government ought to give attention to insurance policies that create jobs, improve wages, and supply larger entry to schooling and healthcare.
Why the Authorities Is Blind to Actuality
The federal government’s continued give attention to GDP progress could be partially defined by cognitive biases. One such bias is the “availability heuristic,” the place policymakers give disproportionate weight to essentially the most available knowledge—GDP progress figures. These numbers are the simplest to measure and report, however they fail to seize the nuances of financial well-being.
Furthermore, the federal government’s optimism bias—the place decision-makers imagine that optimistic outcomes are extra possible than they honestly are—has led to a persistent perception that Nigeria is on the appropriate path, regardless of the seen indicators of misery. Till the federal government acknowledges the constraints of GDP as an financial indicator and listens to the true issues of peculiar Nigerians, this disconnect will persist.
True Prosperity: Past the Numbers
Nigeria’s obsession with GDP progress is distracting policymakers from the extra necessary job of constructing a really affluent nation. True prosperity shouldn’t be concerning the numbers; it’s about enhancing the lives of the individuals. Prosperity must be measured by the discount in poverty, the creation of jobs, higher entry to healthcare and schooling, and the broad distribution of wealth throughout society.
To attain true prosperity, the federal government should transfer past the superficial metrics of GDP and give attention to creating an economic system that works for everybody. This implies addressing inflation, diversifying the economic system, making certain that job creation is a precedence, and lowering inequality. It means making certain that financial progress is felt by each Nigerian, not simply the elite few. Solely then will Nigeria obtain actual, significant prosperity.
