South Africa’s G20 presidency faces mounting pressure

When South Africa hosts the G20 summit this yr, it will likely be the primary time the gathering takes place on African soil. This milestone comes at a time of geopolitical flux, amplifying questions on Pretoria’s skill to navigate world fault strains, notably with the return of US President Donald Trump.

Can South Africa seize this second to form the agenda or will its G20 presidency be overwhelmed by home fragilities, regional tensions and world energy shifts?

To make certain, internet hosting the G20 within the first yr of a Trump 2.0 presidency can be a problem for any nation. Nonetheless, South Africa faces a harder take a look at that can push its diplomatic equipment to the restrict.

Whether or not the nation can really characterize Africa’s pursuits on the G20 is an open query. Whereas Pretoria performed a pivotal position in continental coordination in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and led the 2023 Ukraine-Russia peace mission, right now’s panorama is extra advanced.

Though the African Union’s (AU) G20 admission in 2023 means South Africa now not solely represents the continent, its affect stays distinct as a founding G20 member. But, South Africa’s aspiration to be Africa’s voice is sophisticated by strained ties with key regional gamers, together with Nigeria, Morocco and Rwanda.

Tensions with Rwanda have once more flared over the deteriorating safety state of affairs within the jap Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), with Pretoria and Kigali basically backing opposing sides. Rwandan President Paul Kagame’s brazen public criticism of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa damages Pretoria’s credibility in continental diplomacy.

Morocco is one other essential problem. South Africa’s longstanding assist for the Sahrawi trigger has put it at odds with Rabat, however that is now not a bilateral dispute. As Morocco strengthens its alignment with the US (US) and key European nations, South Africa’s affect in continental affairs seems to be weakening.

The position of Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, in brokering the Abraham Accords has additional cemented Rabat’s geopolitical standing. The settlement noticed Morocco normalise ties with Israel in change for US recognition of its sovereignty over Western Sahara. This rivalry is more and more enjoying out in regional and multilateral establishments too.

Nigeria presents a special however equally urgent dilemma, regardless of latest enhancements in bilateral relations. Whereas each nations have traditionally jostled for affect as Africa’s largest economies, shifting world alignments may exacerbate tensions. Mr Trump’s transactional strategy to overseas coverage and his household’s enterprise connections to Nigeria recommend that US-Nigeria ties could deepen in ways in which additional problem South Africa’s position.

Nigeria’s strategic place in counter-terrorism efforts in West Africa and the Lake Chad Basin area makes it an indispensable safety companion for the US. If Washington prioritises bilateral ties with Abuja over broader African engagement, South Africa may very well be more and more remoted in continental decision-making.

Whereas these tensions aren’t new, they’re now magnified – notably beneath a second Trump administration. These divisions will even frustrate continental integration, notably beneath the African Continental Free Commerce Space.

South Africa should navigate these strained bilateral relations alongside different overseas coverage challenges, reminiscent of its stance on the Russia-Ukraine battle and its authorized actions in opposition to Israel in relation to Gaza.

Mr Trump’s adversarial stance in the direction of South Africa provides to Pretoria’s problem as G20 president. South Africa’s Worldwide Courtroom of Justice case in opposition to Israel had already put it on a collision course with Washington in 2024, with potential repercussions for commerce agreements just like the African Progress and Alternative Act.

Then, final week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated he can be skipping the G20 overseas ministers’ conferences from 20-21 February because of Pretoria’s ‘anti-American’ stance. This raises the query of whether or not Mr Trump will attend November’s G20 Heads of State summit, the place South Africa is supposed handy over the presidency to the US for 2026.

South Africa could face an unprecedented state of affairs: a G20 presidency the place the US presence is diminished, combative or totally absent. Whereas earlier G20 presidencies beneath India, Indonesia and Brazil additionally needed to stability home and world priorities, none needed to navigate a fractured multilateral order beneath a Trump presidency.

The problem is not only defending Africa’s pursuits however managing a G20 during which one among its strongest members is actively disengaged.

An important side of South Africa’s G20 presidency is whether or not it has the personnel to handle these complexities. Minister of Worldwide Relations and Cooperation Ronald Lamola, who will characterize Pretoria at key diplomatic engagements, faces a baptism of fireplace.

His restricted overseas coverage expertise, mixed with the gravity of the state of affairs, makes this a litmus take a look at of his negotiating expertise. Certainly, his skill to forge consensus amid deepening world divisions will probably be a defining take a look at of South Africa’s G20 presidency.

The timing couldn’t be extra awkward. South Africa has been at pains to bolster its fame as a trusted center energy and maximise the G20’s position as a bridge between the G7 and BRICS+ nations for world consensus constructing.

The nation goals to construct on its profitable internet hosting of the 2023 BRICS Summit, which delivered an growth of the bloc – a significant overseas coverage win for South Africa. For President Ramaphosa, this G20 summit is a signature occasion. Because the organisation’s first African president, he will probably be keen to go away a long-lasting legacy.

As South African Institute of Worldwide Affairs Chief Government Elizabeth Sidiropoulos lately famous, the query isn’t whether or not South Africa will push an bold world south agenda, however whether or not it has the diplomatic talent to ship significant outcomes. The upcoming overseas ministers’ conferences will function a bellwether for South Africa’s skill to navigate competing pursuits inside the G20.

Pretoria’s skill to concentrate on the G20 can be hampered by home challenges of sustaining enough electrical energy and water provide, unemployment and monetary constraints. Underneath the brand new Authorities of Nationwide Unity, overseas coverage will doubtless be extra contested, limiting Pretoria’s skill to take decisive positions internationally.

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Whereas the problem of balancing home and overseas coverage is common, South Africa’s predicament is exclusive. Beforehand, it operated inside a multilateral order that, whereas weakened, nonetheless functioned. Underneath Trump’s second time period, the rules-based order could not simply be damaged – it could stop to exist totally. This locations South Africa in uncharted waters, the place previous diplomatic playbooks could now not apply.

Moreover steering a divided G20, can South Africa transfer past reactive diplomacy to carve out a strategic position? The G20 presidency presents a possibility, but additionally a profound danger: if South Africa fails to exhibit diplomatic dexterity, its presidency may reinforce perceptions of the nation’s declining affect quite than improve its world standing.

In the end, success is not going to be measured by lofty declarations however by tangible outcomes. Can South Africa forge consensus on key points? Can it navigate Trump-era unpredictability?

And most significantly, can it reconcile its aspirations with its sensible limitations? The solutions will form whether or not the nation’s G20 presidency is remembered as a turning level or a missed alternative.

Ronak Gopaldas, Institute for Safety Research (ISS) Advisor and Sign Threat Director

(This text was first printed by ISS At present, a Premium Instances syndication companion. We now have their permission to republish).