There are raging and rivalling arguments for Nigeria’s present presidential system versus geopolitical rotational presidency not least given the nation’s complicated ethno-religious dynamics. The plurality of cultural, linguistic, and non secular civilisations, ditto ethnicities, interposes aspirations for better nationhood with seminal benefits and the disadvantages within the nation, underpinned by its exponentially rising inhabitants at present 229.5 million; and forecast to exceed 377 million by 2050. Expressed in another way, Nigeria’s inhabitants will rise by 64.3 per cent in simply 25 years!
On the plus aspect, are the philosophical goals of “one Nigeria”, unity-in-diversity, energy in numbers, and collectively we stand, ditto the sensible advantages. That thesis is strengthened by economics. The actual fact that the nation’s big inhabitants – greater than 3 times the UK’s circa 68.3 million, and 218 occasions the scale of Seychelles’ 105, 000 population-creates a big inner market.
That optimises commerce throughout the service business, particularly in agriculture, banking, finance, fast-paced shopper items, meals, housing, and transport realms; is a significant asset and supply of aggressive benefit. Afterall, individuals should eat and drink each day, they journey to and from work each day, and absolutely, should stay someplace. Considerably, in as we speak’s AI and robotics dominated world, Nigeria is not at all navel-gazing!
The nation’s telecoms corporations recorded $7.6 billion in revenues in 2024 (PWC) the biggest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria is an OPEC member and Africa’s largest crude oil exporter. Dangote Refinery, one of many world’s largest petrochemical vegetation, with an optimalproduction capability of 650,000 barrels of crude per day relies, in Lekki, Lagos, with over 250,000direct and oblique workers.
Though overseas direct funding into the nation in declined sharply from by 65 per cent from $86.03 million in q2 2023 to $29.83 million in this fall 2024, nonetheless, Nigeria’s demographics is pivotal in financial paradigms for home and worldwide commerce.
Conversely, Nigeria’s besieged by terrorism, ethno-religious killings, kidnappings, armed theft and the breakdown of legislation and order in locations. In response to Statista, between 2011 and 2023, Boko Haram induced over 38,000 deaths within the Borno province alone. The kidnapping of 276 feminine college students from Authorities Ladies Secondary Faculty, Chibok, in 2014 captured international consideration. Over 100 women are nonetheless lacking, and 6 college students are presumed lifeless.
America Congress on March 11, 2025, in H.RES 220,vaffirmed inter alia that “Northern Nigeria has seen the destruction of ‘‘over 18,000 church buildings since 2009’’ in assaults by Boko Haram militants, Fulani herdsmen, and others, in accordance with a 2023 Vatican report, and in 2021, the Division of State reported 5 assaults on mosques by unidentified gunmen, bandits, and Boko Haram; whereas, roughly 34,000 reasonable non-Fulani Muslims additionally died in assaults, since 2009, from extremist teams for opposing radical Islamic ideologies…”; resolved, inter alia, that Nigeria ought to be designated:
“As a Nation of Explicit Concern (CPC) below the Worldwide Spiritual Freedom Act of 1998 which mandates the designation of Nations of Explicit Concern for nations engaged in or tolerating systematic, ongoing, and egregious violations of spiritual freedom”. While the Nigerian authorities has robustly responded to those assertions nonetheless, they’re patently critical certainly.
Counting on the related provisions of part 305 of the 1999 Nigerian Structure (as amended), President Tinubu on March 18, 2025, declared a state of emergency within the nation’s pivotal bread-basket, River State, pursuant to epic multi-dimensional political issues and the breakdown of legislation and order. The explosion of the essential arterial Trans-Niger oil pipelinein the Niger Delta on March 17, 2025,24 hours earlier than the emergency declaration, establishes res ipsa loquitur.
Now, the nation’s presidential system of presidency has been in place since 1979; albeit interspersed with in depth navy dictatorship interregnums, via 1983 and 1999.Nonetheless, from the recommencement of the fourth republic’s civilian democracyon Might 29, 1999, the nation has loved an unbroken 26 years of the presidential system of presidency, modelled alongside U.S. strains. Theoretically, the presidential system is engaging on necessary counts.
First, is the inherent precept of the separation of powers between the three major arms of presidency – the Government, the legislature (also referred to as the Congress, Nationwide Meeting, or Parliament), and the Judiciary. Second, is the precept of checks and balances as between the quasi-independent arms of presidency such that nobody arm of presidency can override the opposite.Third, is the philosophical declare to judicial independence. The phrase “philosophical declare” is deployed as a result of the precept defies common utility and holistic interpretation. As an instance, in Nigeria, the Chief Justice of the Federation is appointed by the President, simply because the chief judges of the respective federating items are appointed by state governors.
The inference subsequently is that in a really unbiased mannequin of separation of powers, senior judicial officers can be appointed by a longtime physique of eminent jurists of impeccable integrity and experience; and train holistic administrative and monetary independence!
Fourth, the dynamic complexities of Nigeria’s constitutional structure giveeach area a way of belonging in that the subsistence of 36 federating items or states, 774 native authorities authorities, and a federal capital territory goals to present every citizen a “sense of belonging.” And fifth, the precept of devolution of energy is deducible from the actual fact of the presidential system of presidency inside Nigeria’s federal construction.
Conversely, sturdy counter-arguments problem the very foundations of Nigeria’s presidential system of presidency on notable grounds. One, however the grandiloquent claims to federalism within the Structure, the bald veracity is that actual energy is wielded within the centre of energy by the chief through, the President. And, as enunciated inter alia viasection 5(1) (a) and (b) therein, the chief powers of the federation “shall be vested within the President and should… be exercised by him both straight or via the Vice-President and Ministers of the Authorities of the Federation or officers of the Federation…” Comparable provisions apply, mutatis mutandis, to government governors of all of the 36 states of the federation pursuant to the succeeding provisions of part 5 (2) and 5 (3) inclusive.
Two, for the reason that nation’s adoption of the presidential system of presidency inside a federal construction on October 1, 1979, government energy, the actual energy on the centre, has, barring three exceptions, largely oscillated between the bulk ethnic nation states of the Yoruba and the Hausa/Fulani.
As an instance, President Shehu Shagari, (1979-1983) was Fulani. Basic Muhammadu Buhari is Fulani. He dominated as a navy dictator between 1983-1985; and, reincarnated as a civilian political chief between 2015-2023; Basic Ibrahim Babangida (1985-1993) isGwari; President Ernest Shonekan (1993-1993) was Yoruba.Basic Sani Abacha (1993-1998), was Kanuri.Basic Olusegun Okikiola Obasanjo, (1999-2007) is Yoruba.
For historic accuracy, Basic Obasanjo, holds the enviable document as the primary Nigerian, and African chief, to voluntarily, and peacefully, hand over to a civilian administration, on October 1, 1979. President Umaru Musa Yar Adua (2007-2010) was Fulani; President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (2008-2010) is Ijaw. While President Bola Tinubu, a Yoruba man, has held energy since 2023.
The thrust of this counter-argument pivots on the truth that Nigeria has over 250 completely different ethnic teams and that there’s completely no justifiable foundation for the domination of the nation by the bulk ethnic teams. Legit questions have been raised because the absence of an Igbo, Benin, Kwara, Nupe, Dadiya, Jukun and so forth President?!
Three, sure, democracy is a sport of numbers. Nevertheless, the winner-takes-all strategy to the presidential system of presidency which the nation operates creates a them-and-us mentality, fuelling mistrust between the bulk versus the minority ethnic nationalities, and marginalisation claims in opposition to the previous.
4, in Nigeria’s presidential mannequin, identical to the U.S. system, the chief wields huge powers. The train of presidential energy just isn’t inherently problematic. The problem nonetheless, is that it runs the dangers of absolutism, if it isn’t constantly, demonstrably, equitably, and proportionately, utilised for the advantage of all ethnic nationalities given the nation’s cascading multi-religious, multilingual, multi-cultural socio-political variables.
To border this in some perspective, the Nigeria/Biafra Civil Warfare (1967-1970), which resulted within the deaths of over 1,000,000 individuals, induced in depth human struggling and hunger, uncovered Nigeria’s extraordinarily delicate nationwide cohesion fault-lines, surfaced grave issues pertaining to minority ethnic marginalisation, and the overcentralisation of energy.
That mentioned, the enlightenedduality ofsovereign autonomy and nation-building, defy utopian exactness and perfection. Nothing does. Due to this fact, nation-building, devolution of energy, real inclusiveness, meritocracy and balanced appointments have to be not solely be demonstrably equitable, however ought to be seen to be so.
Certainly, the 1957/1958 Willink Fee, which analysed the agitations of Nigeria’s minority teams and people, beneficial the constitutional safety of minority rights and elementary human rights. Socio-political undercurrents from that report, over 65 years later, nonetheless reverberate within the South West, South East and Northern elements of the nation. Arguably, the orthodoxy of Nigeria’s business-as-usual presidential mannequin, is unsustainable given the unpredictability of the worldwide order, interventionist overseas coverage fashions adopted by superpowers and progressive calls for for better inclusiveness by Nigerian minorities.
It’s for Nigeria to critically analyse its socio-political fault-lines, and implement pragmatic approaches, which command in style help. The affordable expectation is that itcan, partly not less than, if not totally, meet the reputable aspirations of the nation’s complicated ethno-political dynamics.
The central conclusion is that Nigeria ought to contemplate adopting a broader and deeper proportional illustration political mannequin, underpinned by geopolitical rotational presidency, upon real nationwide consultations and debates on the Nationwide Meeting and the respective State Homes of Meeting.
Afterall, the truth that Nigeria has utilised the extraordinarily pricey presidential mannequin for over three a long time just isn’t a sufficiently cogent purpose for its retention. These proposals demand braveness, inventive considering, management, and imaginative and prescient.
The fabric query subsequently is whether or not progressive government leaders, and serious-minded parliamentarians, really dedicated to nation-building, want their names to be impactfully written in gold, like Madiba Nelson Mandela, or in measly historic footnotes?!
Francis Bacon, the seventeenth Century thinker and Lord Chancellor, was proper: “legislation and establishments, should go hand-in-hand, with the progress of the human thoughts.”Ojumu is the Principal Associate at Balliol Myers LP, a agency of authorized practitioners and technique consultants in Lagos, Nigeria and the creator of The Dynamic Intersections of Economics, International Relations, Jurisprudence and Nationwide Improvement.
