Why Ghana’s election matters, By Azu Ishiekwene

If there’s something that the result of Ghana’s election teaches, even past the subregion, it’s that voters don’t forgive politicians who depart them feeling worse off. You might have saved them from COVID-19, the fallouts of world conflicts elsewhere, or the headwinds afterwards. Nonetheless, what weighs on their thoughts once they solid their poll is whether or not they’re feeling higher off at the moment.

The information from Ghana was not how John Dramani Mahama’s opposition social gathering, the Nationwide Democratic Congress (NDC), defeated Nana Akufo-Addo’s ruling New Patriotic Social gathering (NPP).

The information was how Akufo-Addo managed to outlive a full second time period. In the direction of the tip of his first and for a lot of his second time period in workplace, he ruled together with his head on the block, simply ready for the axe to fall.

His social gathering’s loss within the 7 December presidential election was a defeat foretold. It was barely two years after Akufo-Addo assumed workplace in 2017 when doubts about his social gathering’s viability started to floor. It shouldn’t have been so.

His predecessor, the John Atta-Mills/Dramani authorities, made such a large number. Other than divisions inside the NDC, it was additional weakened by a sequence of significant corruption scandals, essentially the most exceptional of which had been the federal government’s involvement within the switch of $11 million and £9 million paid by a celebration financier and a litany of failed guarantees.

Dramani’s loss to Akufo-Addo relieved the loser, who solely managed to complete Atta-Mills’ time period after the latter died in workplace.

Hero to Zero

As I wrote in a 2022 article, Akufo-Addo was off to a flying begin. From New York to Beijing and Paris, he grew to become the brand new face of the African Renaissance, saying the precise issues wherever he went on the worldwide stage and elevating a $3 billion Eurobond for Ghana’s restructuring that overperformed its order ebook by $21 billion.

Regardless of his greatest efforts, COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine Conflict put Ghana in a good spot. The nation’s predicament was worsened by poor fiscal self-discipline, unstable commodity costs, and a capitulation to stress from Labour to extend public sector wages to unsustainable ranges.

Akufo-Addo’s social gathering paid upfront for the nation’s distress. A number of protests rocked the streets of Accra and different main capitals, and voters couldn’t wait to bury the NPP with any remaining claims of fine deeds on the polls.

Profitable elections and transitions in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Senegal, Nigeria, and Ghana have provided a counter-narrative. It’s all of the extra heartening that the ruling social gathering’s candidate within the election, Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, didn’t anticipate the official outcome earlier than conceding defeat, reinforcing a development began in 2015 by Nigeria’s former President Goodluck Jonathan.

Past Elections

Nonetheless, the election meant one thing extra for the subregion than about offended and drained Ghanaian voters eradicating an incumbent authorities.

Within the final 4 years, the subregion has been affected by army coups paying homage to a bygone period. Mali, Niger, Guinea and Burkina Faso have fashioned an arc of Delinquent States, with three of them sundering the decades-old Financial Group of West African States (ECOWAS) by making a parallel Alliance for Sahelian States in defiance of the regional powerhouses and even the AU.

Profitable elections and transitions in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Senegal, Nigeria, and Ghana have provided a counter-narrative. It’s all of the extra heartening that the ruling social gathering’s candidate within the election, Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, didn’t anticipate the official outcome earlier than conceding defeat, reinforcing a development began in 2015 by Nigeria’s former President Goodluck Jonathan.

Job for Powerhouses

The profitable transition is nice information for regional financial stability. Though the 4 break-away states represent half of the ECOWAS space and solely seven per cent of financial exercise inside the zone, the financial sanctions imposed on them by the subregional group impacted swathes of the primarily poor populations throughout the area, the place casual cross-border commerce, primarily in meals, make up about 30 per cent of regional commerce.

Secure transitions in Ghana and Nigeria, the area’s two financial powerhouses, would enable ECOWAS to reassess its choices – a major level within the agenda because the sub-regional group meets in Nigeria’s capital, Abuja, this week.

Delinquent 4 on the Agenda

Ought to ECOWAS proceed to interact the breakaway states in its efforts at sooner regional integration, particularly in mild of the delicate relations between these states and France, in an period through which Russia and China are lurking and the US is self-absorbed? Or has the time come for the group to chart a brand new course and settle for a future with out the 4 breakaway states?

That will not solely be an financial resolution. It additionally carries significance for subregional safety. Burkina Faso and Mali are out of the ECOWAS multinational joint job power. Protracted or failed elections in Ghana would have additional weakened the group’s disaster response mechanism at a time when Nigerian army authorities are grappling with new safety threats from Lakurawa, an ISIS franchise.

It’s unlikely that the brand new authorities in Accra, on the watch of Mahama, one of many mediators through the post-election dispute in The Gambia in 2016, would depart considerably from the main function that Ghana has performed in subregional peace assist operations, which works again to its function in ECOMOG within the Nineties.

At a extra granular stage, there are different the reason why Ghana’s election issues, particularly in relations between Abuja and Accra. Already, the commentariat in Nigeria is holding up Ghana’s election as a mannequin for the election administration physique in Nigeria. Other than former President Jonathan’s pre-emptive concession of defeat 9 years in the past, Nigeria is maybe the continent’s capital of disputed elections.

Go to Court docket!

At a extra granular stage, there are different the reason why Ghana’s election issues, particularly in relations between Abuja and Accra. Already, the commentariat in Nigeria is holding up Ghana’s election as a mannequin for the election administration physique in Nigeria. Other than former President Jonathan’s pre-emptive concession of defeat 9 years in the past, Nigeria is maybe the continent’s capital of disputed elections.

In fact, Nigeria’s election administration physique wants to boost its sport. Basically, nonetheless, the chaos displays the winner-takes-all mentality among the many nation’s political elite, which has more and more seduced the courts to resolve elections. Usually, when Nigerian politicians taunt their opponent to “go to courtroom” after an election, they’re assured of a beneficial consequence.

Ghanaian Jollof

Nigerians additionally envy Ghana’s rise as the brand new vacation spot for large enterprise, a prospect that might solely have been enhanced by the sleek election. Regardless of Ghana’s financial disaster, Nigeria has misplaced a number of fintech and manufacturing firms to its western neighbour within the final three years.

Guinness, for instance, has moved its operational headquarters to Accra, whereas others, corresponding to Afprint, President Industries and Aswani – all within the textile sector – are reportedly considering relocation. Due to Ghana’s secure and predictable political setting, tech giants, together with Google, X (previously Twitter), and Fb, haven’t hidden their desire for it, regardless of Nigeria’s vital market measurement.

Whether or not, aside from its enterprise attraction, Ghanaian jollof would additionally greatest Nigeria’s jollof within the endless delicacies warfare between each nations within the subsequent 4 years below Mahama stays to be seen.

Voters’ Psyche

If there’s something that the result of Ghana’s election teaches, even past the subregion, it’s that voters don’t forgive politicians who depart them feeling worse off. You might have saved them from COVID-19, the fallouts of world conflicts elsewhere, or the headwinds afterwards. Nonetheless, what weighs on their thoughts once they solid their poll is whether or not they’re feeling higher off at the moment.

That was why Rishi Sunak misplaced to Keir Starmer in Britain, and Vice President Kamala Harris misplaced to Donald Trump within the US. It was additionally why Akufo-Addo survived his second time period by the pores and skin of his tooth however failed handy over the baton to his deputy in Ghana.

Azu Ishiekwene is the Editor-in-Chief of LEADERSHIP and creator of the brand new ebook, Writing for Media and Monetising It.